New AirAsia Japan reveals China, SE Asia, USA ambitions.

On February 15th, AirAsia Japan's (Mk II) [DJ] new Chairman Takashi Ide revealed that the delayed LCC is now preparing to start flying in Summer 2016, hopefully in July or August. Speaking at a public symposium calling for a second runway at its Nagoya/Chubu Centrair [NGO/RJGG] hub (AirAsia Japan confirms Spring 2016 launch from Nagoya.), the former Skymark Airlines [BC/SKY] executive who only joined in December (AirAsia Japan CEO to quit, ex-Skymark executives coming.) also disclosed plans for China, hubs at Taipei/Taoyuan [TPE/RCTP] and Tokyo/Narita [NRT/RJAA], plus Airbus A330s for trans-Pacific and Hawaii routes. It will also continue to push for Chubu Centrair's proposed new LCC terminal, which could open as early as FY2018 and handle up to 5 million passengers annually.

Airbus A320-216(SL) JA01DJ, which has not flown since delivery (New AirAsia Japan receives first Airbus A320.), is now being reactivated for a test flight on February 16th. AirAsia Japan (Mk II) plans to commence crew training on its own aircraft on March 15th as their first group of trainees return from Malaysia. Their second aircraft will be deferred to April, while the Mika Ninagawa-designed special livery will be adorned by their third. (Photo: Aviation Wire)

The reincarnation of AirAsia's [AK/AXM] Japanese unit was originally planned to take off in June 2015 (AirAsia Japan is officially reborn; first flight June 2015.), but was postponed to April 2016 after finally receiving an Air Operator's Certificate (AOC) in October (New AirAsia Japan receives AOC; takeoff in April 2016.), only to be delayed again after the surprising management change (New AirAsia Japan delays service entry to July 2016.). Its shareholders have agreed to together inject 3 billion JPY this month. "Former management was essentially trying to build a Japanese branch of AirAsia. But we need to be a Japanese airline in the first place," said Mr. Ide, explaining "An AOC (in Japan) only means the business structure is in place. We cannot fly yet because we have not met all the JCAB criteria to become airworthy." Mr. Ide also added "AirAsia is fun and bright, but that is outside of Japan. People are very conservative here, and it is difficult to carve out a space against ANA and JAL. I learned a lot about that (through Skymark)."

Mr. Ide reiterated that AirAsia Japan's main target would be Japan's inbound market (outbound is shrinking due to aging and a declining population). As already reported, it will start with a fleet of two 180-seat Airbus A320 flying from Chubu Centrair to Sapporo/New Chitose [CTS/RJCC], Sendai [SDJ/RJSS], and Taipei, with each city receiving double-daily frequencies. It plans to carry 150,000 passengers by 2016 year-end. In 2017, its fleet will be increased to six aircraft mostly to fuel China expansion, and Mr. Ide named Beijing/Capital [PEK/ZBAA] or Tianjin [TSN/ZBTJ], Guam [GUM/PGUM], Hong Kong [HKG/VHHH] or Macau [MFM/VMMC], Seoul/Incheon [ICN/RKSI], and Shanghai/Pudong [PVG/ZSPD] or Wuxi [WUX/ZSWX]. Mr. Ide said it will not hesitate to fly to less-congested airports that have attractive incentives for newcomers. First profit is forecasted for FY2017.

For 2018, AirAsia Japan will add three A320s for a total of nine, plus two A330s. The new Airbus wide-body aircraft will be used to open up Chubu Centrair – Singapore/Changi [SIN/WSSS], while the additional A320s will be based at a new hub at Narita and fly to Beijing or Tianjin, Hong Kong or Macau, New Chitose, Taipei, and Shanghai or Wuxi, all destinations which would already be served from Chubu Centrair by then. FY2018 is projected to see total revenue increasing to 25 billion JPY with a profit margin of 7%. During 2019, the fleet will be increased to a dozen A320s and four A330s; the A320s will be based at their third hub at Taipei and start Vietnam and Singapore using fifth freedom rights, while additional A330s will be used to launch Honolulu [HNL/PHNL] from both Chubu Centrair and Narita. FY2019 is expected to see revenue amounting to 35 billion JPY with a profit margin of 10%.

By the end of 2020, the LCC will boast 14 A320s and six A330s. The additional A330s will be used to open up its first trans-Pacific routes to Seattle-Tacoma [SEA/KSEA], though Mr. Ide noted it could be changed to San Francisco [SFO/KSFO] depending on which U.S. partner it interlines with. Meanwhile, the A320 additions will help them connect more dots, including Taipei and Narita with Seoul. By the end of FY2020, AirAsia Japan aims to fly 30 round-trips from Chubu Centair and 10 round-trips from Narita with an average load factor of 75%, producing total revenues of 50 billion JPY and a profit margin of 15%. The LCC also plans to conduct its Initial Public Offering (IPO) during FY2020.

So the details of AirAsia's second shot at Japan have now been unveiled. The importance of China had been repeated, however, as slots at key destinations dry up, it may need to fly to secondary airports. AirAsia has brand recognition in China, but how much impact a split operation among sisters would have is unsure, though it already serves multiple airports for Tokyo with AirAsia X [D7/XAX] at Tokyo/Haneda [HND/RJTT] and Thai AirAsia X [XJ/TAX] at Narita. For Japan – Southeast Asia, Vietnam and Singapore are natural priorities, as the group doesn't have local affiliates there. Meanwhile, Malaysia and Thailand are better served by its lower-cost sisters in these respective countries. It is also noteworthy that AirAsia Japan will become the first group carrier to operate A330s alongside A320s (excluding Indonesia AirAsia X [XT/IDX], for paperwork purposes); the Airbus wide-bodies will mainly serve trans-Pacific and Hawaii markets, with feed not only from Japan (which is shrinking), but from China and Southeast Asia (which is growing).

Source: Traicy, 2016 February 15th. (in Japanese)
Source: Aviation Wire, 2016 February 15th. (in Japanese)
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, 2016 February 15th. (in Japanese)

*Edited/updated on 2016 February 16th.

Skymark relaunched with ANA sponsorship.

On September 29th, bankrupt Skymark Airlines [BC/SKY] (Skymark to file for bankruptcy.) officially revamped its ownership structure and management. A 100% capital reduction was performed, followed by a 18 billion JPY capital injection together from Integral Corporation, ANA Holdings, and UDS Airlines Investment, which officially became the new owners of the embattled airline, controlling 50.1%, 16.5%, and 33.4%, respectively (Creditors choose ANA/Skymark proposal over Delta/Intrepid.). UDS is a new investment firm jointly owned by Development Bank of Japan (DBJ) and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, both now long-time partners of ANA Holdings.

Boeing 737-86N(WL) JA73NJ taxies at New Chitose. Skymark intends to retain a fleet of at least 26 baby Boeings. Can Skymark remain independent? Caught in between the incumbent carriers and new LCCs, what market could it pursue outside its bread-and-butter (for now) Haneda? (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

The former Skymark management, including Chairman Takashi Ide and President Masakazu Arimori, has been entirely replaced by six new executives. Integral's President Nobuo Sayama has become Chairman and Masahiko Ichie of Development Bank of Japan (DBJ) assumed the role of President. Senior Managing Director is Hideo Yaguchi from OCS, an ANA Holdings cargo subsidiary, who will be responsible for general supervision. Manabu Motohashi, the sole person on the board from within Skymark, is Managing Director and Executive Officer, taking responsibility for management planning, overall control for marketing, and information system. Integral's Shigeki Nishioka has become Director and Executive Officer, overseeing finance, accounting, general affairs, human resources, and listing preparation. ANA's Noriyuki Masukawa has been appointed Director to supervise safety operations.
 
At the same time, Skymark signed a binding code-sharing agreement with rival All Nippon Airways [NH/ANA], subsidiary of the bankrupt carrier's now 16.5% owner ANA Holdings, which is the centerpiece of the struggling airline's corporate rehabilitation plan (Skymark gives in to ANA; Japan reverts to duopoly.). Discussions are being held to implement code-sharing on 13 routes; all but three routes out of Tokyo/Haneda [HND/RJTT] and Sendai [SDJ/RJSS], which is being axed at the end of next month (Skymark to pull out of Sendai in October.). Omitted from Haneda are to Fukuoka [FUK/RJFF], Kagoshima [KOJ/RJFK], and Sapporo/New Chitose [CTS/RJCC], where ANA already commands the lion's share of flights and they learned the Japan Fair Trade Commission is unlikely to give a nod.

"We're working towards starting code-sharing in Winter 2016/2017," said Mr. Sayama, adding "We hope to reveal the outline of code-sharing by mid-October." ANA has been pushing Skymark to adopt their Able-D reservations system, which was also taken up by previous ANA-sponsored airlines AIRDO [HD/ADO] (d.b.a Air Do), Skynet Asia Airways [6J/SNJ] (d.b.a. Solaseed Air), and Star Flyer [7G/SFJ]. However, taking up the system meant pricing needed to have consent from ANA, and all income would go into ANA first and then later be transferred to the airlines, virtually making the three quasi-subsidiaries of ANA. Mr. Sayama has said "Nobody can call that independent, so Skymark can't do that." Outgoing Chairman Mr. Ide had also stated that preserving Skymark's own reservations system, handmade by former President and CEO Shinichi Nishikubo, and modifying it to make it compatible with code-shares, instead of abandoning it and wholly-adopting Able-D, is key to keeping Skymark independent from ANA.

Boeing 737-881(WL) JA75AN takes off from Haneda. Now the ANA group has direct and indirect influence over a dominant 60% of domestic slots at Haneda. With Air Do, Solaseed Air, and Star Flyer having adopted ANA's reservations system and effectively becoming de facto subsidiaries of ANA, a key to Skymark's independence in the long term is to continue using its own platform. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

In addition, Skymark reached an agreement with Mizuho Bank for the establishment of a commitment line on September 17th, allowing up to 10 billion JPY in financing. Payments to creditors will commence on November 30th, and those claiming 1 million JPY will receive the entire figure while those claiming more will initially be given 5% of the amount exceeding 1 million JPY. Biggest creditor Intrepid Aviation, which initially sought for 900 million USD (108 billion JPY) for scrapping Airbus 330 leases (Skymark terminates all Airbus A330 leases.) and fought against ANA to sponsor Skymark with Delta Air Lines [DL/DAL] (Intrepid picks Delta to sponsor Skymark.), has compromised at 57.3 billion JPY, while talks are still continuing with Airbus, Rolls-Royce, and CIT Aerospace, which are the second, third, and fourth largest creditors, respectively. A settlement with Airbus and Rolls-Royce is to be watched, as rumors point out to ANA making a backroom deal to purchase three of Skymark's canceled Rolls-Royce-powered A380s and taking options for two more, which prompted the two creditors to make a last-minute sway in favor of ANA's sponsorship over Delta's (Bye-bye Skymark, Hello ANA Airbus A380?).

Mr. Ichie said that no new routes nor route cuts are planned for the following year, after Sendai is axed. The new chief said Skymark will focus more on building loyalty in its communities where it has a relatively stronger brand recognition, such as in Kobe [UKB/RJBE] and Ibaraki [IBR/RJAH]. The fleet will be kept at at least 26 Boeing 737-800s, and whether to renew the lease of the 27th machine, which is expiring in January 2016, is currently being evaluated. Mr. Sayama confirmed that Skymark will retain its current identity even after it emerges from bankruptcy protection, instead of renaming it SKY bee (Skymark hints at new brand: SKY bee?). Both the new and old management agree that Skymark could become quickly profitable and be listed again in three years. Regulator Japan Civil Aviation Bureau (JCAB) has hinted limiting ANA's financial involvement in Skymark to five years to keep competition at Haneda, however, ANA's cozy relationship with the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could make the winds blow in their favor again.

Skymark's load factors are quickly recovering. Although August is normally a high month as it is the peak summer vacation travel season coupled with Obon homecoming, the bankrupt airline produced load factors exceeding 90% for most Haneda routes. It doesn't directly translate to yields, however, it is nevertheless a positive sign. With the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MLIT) currently planning to allocate most, if not all of, new future slots at Haneda to international flights in preparation for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics/Paralympics, its domestic market remains closed off to LCCs, making Skymark the only low-fare option at Japan's most important airport. But what market will Skymark pursue beyond that? It has lost against LCCs on almost every other directly-competing route, and though much lower cost and offering lower fares than ANA or JAL, it has failed to generate demand, which the LCCs have succeeded in doing. Regional international routes within reach of its 737s are also seeing growing competition from LCCs. And with the domestic market shrinking, Haneda is not a safe haven forever.

Finding itself being caught in between the majors and LCCs forced Skymark to boldly (and unsuccessfully) pursue the demand for affordable premium travel, initially in the domestic market with all-premium A330s (Skymark Airlines inaugurates Airbus A330 service.) and in the international long-haul arena with premium-only A380s (Skymark posts loss but optimistic with strategy tweaks.). The A330s were also equipped with full galleys so that it could fly regional international routes as well. However, it was too costly and Skymark failed there. So what future lies for Skymark in the long term?

Source: Aviation Wire, 2015 September 1st. (in Japanese)
Source: Aviation Wire, 2015 September 2nd. (in Japanese) 
Source: Aviation Wire, 2015 September 11th. (in Japanese)
Source: Hokkaido Shimbun, 2015 September 15th. (in Japanese)
Source: Toyo Keizai, 2015 September 17th. (in Japanese)
Source: Toyo Keizai, 2015 September 24th. (in Japanese)
Source: Aviation Wire, 2015 September 29th. (in Japanese)
Source: Skymark Airlines, 2015 September 29th. (in English)
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, 2015 September 29th. (in Japanese)
Source: Aviation Wire, 2015 September 29th. (in Japanese)

Bye-bye Skymark, hello ANA Airbus A380?

ANA Holdings, parent of All Nippon Airways [NH/ANA], has won the bid to lead bankrupt Skymark Airlines' [BC/SKY] rehabilitation process (Creditors choose ANA/Skymark proposal over Delta/Intrepid.). It was a landslide victory for Japan's already largest carrier, garnering 78% votes in terms of the number of creditors and 60.25% in terms of the amount of Skymark's liabilities, fulfilling both conditions.

But at least the latter was widely speculated to be a Delta/Intrepid victory (Intrepid picks Delta to sponsor Skymark.), as creditors Airbus, Rolls-Royce, and CIT Aerospace, accounting for 29%, 16%, and 14%, respectively (Skymark's total debts skyrocket to 300 billion JPY.), were all opposed to ANA involvement at least until very recently (Airbus and Intrepid to reject ANA/Skymark tie-up.). With Intrepid claiming 38%, just one of the three creditors supporting the Delta Air Lines [DL/DAL]-led scheme would have given them a win in terms of proportions of liabilities, prompting another round of vote within two-months. So how did ANA win the support of the three key players in the last few days?

Airbus A380-841 F-WWSL/JA380A at Toulouse. Two of Skymark's have been completed while the third has partially been built. ANA's taking up of the A380s was necessary for them to win support from Airbus and Rolls-Royce, and keep true competition out of bread-and-butter Haneda for as long as possible by keeping Skymark under its control. ANA has deep pockets, but can they fly the A380 profitably? How long can protectionism prevail? (Photo: Airbus)

During the last days of July, "ANA made a promise with Airbus to place a significant future order, carefully couched so as not to trigger a disclosure requirement," said an ANA official close to the matter who asked not to be named. That order includes acquiring three displaced A380s initially ordered by Japan's embattled third largest airline (Skymark's Airbus A380 order in jeopardy.), and taking options for two more. Two aircraft have been completed and are currently stored at Toulouse/Blagnac [TLS/LFBO], with a third partially finished. Rolls-Royce Trent 900s power the super-jumbos, and hence Rolls-Royce's defect to ANA as well.

Airbus initially supported ANA as they had earlier talked positively about inducting Skymark's A380s, but then sided with Delta/Intrepid after ANA scrapped the talks a few weeks later saying plans had changed. Intrepid also supported ANA in the first place, as a non-binding Letter of Intent (LoI) was signed for ANA to lease Skymark's A330s (Skymark terminates all Airbus A330 leases.). But ANA also canceled it just a few weeks later, causing outrage at Intrepid and prompting the U.S.-based aircraft lessor to come up with their own rehabilitation plan for Skymark that eventually lured Delta as its sponsor. So this time around, ANA couldn't have gained Airbus and Rolls-Royce's support without a binding agreement. According to the same source, ANA will release plans for the A380 "when the time is appropriate."

The next question is why did CIT Aerospace support ANA? Delta is a big customer for CIT, while ANA has no record of having business with them. What is known from multiple sources is that ANA pledged to lease aircraft from them in the near future. Rumors say that Japan's largest carrier talked of an idea to lease some, if not all three of CIT's A330s that were destined for Skymark, and place them in service with ANA's wholly-owned subsidiary LCC Vanilla Air [JW/VNL] for Hawaii services. However, how much reliability this rumor has is unsure, as at least one of CIT's ex-Skymark A330s seems to have found a new operator in Spain with Air Europa [UX/AEA].

Boeing 737-8HX(WL) JA73NA. Now how much independence Skymark would be able to retain is up to Integral. But adopting ANA's reservation system is a double-edged sword. Skymark's stable income would be assured by ANA, but they would forever become a slave of Japan's largest carrier, as with Air Do, Solaseed Air, and Star Flyer. (Photo: Aviation Wire)

For Skymark, it would be a very bitter end to its challenge against the ANA/JAL duopoly (Skymark gives in to ANA; Japan reverts to duopoly.). Paper-wise, ANA will only control 16.5% with Integral Corporation holding 50.1% and UDS Airlines Investment 33.4%. However, UDS is a new investment firm jointly owned by Development Bank of Japan (DBJ) and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, both loyal ANA partners. Six executives will sit on the board and Integral will select three, but ANA two, and UDS one; Integral's President Nobuo Sayama will take the Chairman's seat but DBJ's former Managing Director Masahiko Ichie, a strong ANA ally, will become President.

And the centerpiece of the ANA/Skymark plan is an extensive code-share. Skymark's current reservations system developed by former hands-on President and CEO Shinichi Nishikubo cannot handle any code-shares, and Skymark will most likely adopt ANA's system. An official of the regulating Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MLIT) has quoted it as "an addictive poison," as it allows ANA to access Skymark's entire ticket sales data, including pricing policy and reservation rates. But for Skymark, developing an all-new system would be too costly. ANA's other de facto puppet carriers AIRDO [HD/ADO] (d.b.a. Air Do), Skynet Asia Airways [6J/SNJ] (d.b.a. Solaseed Air), and Star Flyer [7G/SFJ] all share ANA's system. Skymark's network will gradually be aligned to complement that of ANA's, essentially stopping short of a takeover.

Regulator MLIT knows competition is necessary. But for now, the ruling Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) sits on top of them. The LDP is said to have pressured ANA to accept A380s so that Skymark remain in Japanese (ANA) hands. In return, the regime is rumored to have unofficially promised to give ANA the lion's share of new slot-pairs at Haneda when the next expansion comes before the 2020 Olympics/Paralympics. A fifth runway is far-fetched, and the MLIT is currently talking with local authorities to allow aircraft to overfly densely-populated business and residential areas, which could create up to 50 more slot-pairs per day. Conservative LDP supports ANA in order to dilute JAL's remarkable comeback as it was bailed out when the opposing Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was at helm. Foreign involvement is out of question, at least at Haneda. The LDP is determined to protect ANA, and to a lesser extent JAL.

Welcome to Japan. Here we go back in time with the two incumbents ANA/JAL and its affiliates controlling 100% of the Haneda market and 97% of the entire domestic market. And at the preferred downtown Tokyo airport, ANA would already command the lion's share of domestic slots, having direct/indirect control over 60% when combined with de facto subsidiaries Air Do, Skymark, Solaseed Air, and Star Flyer, with JAL accounting for the remaining 40%. Sadly for the ordinary flyer, the incumbent government prefers a closed market, benefiting selected powers at the expense of the interest of the flying public and broader industry evolution. The government should stop toying with aviation politics.

Source: Nikkei Shimbun, August 6th. (in Japanese)
Source: Aviation Wire, August 6th. (in Japanese)
Source: Aviation Wire, August 6th. (in Japanese)
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, August 6th. (in Japanese)

Skymark/ANA and Intrepid both given go-ahead by court.

On June 15th, the Tokyo District Court, where Skymark Airlines [BC/SKY] filed for bankruptcy protection (Skymark to file for bankruptcy.), approved both rehabilitation proposals for the embattled carrier for discussion at a creditors' meeting; one submitted by Skymark themselves that involves sponsorship by ANA Holdings, parent of All Nippon Airways [NH/ANA] (Skymark gives in to ANA; Japan reverts to duopoly.), and the other by Intrepid Aviation, aircraft lessor and Skymark's biggest creditor (Skymark and Intrepid submit rivaling revival plans.). In Japan, it is very unusual for multiple plans to be approved for consideration. The meeting will be held on August 5th.

Boeing 737-82Y(WL) JA73NE comes in to land at New Chitose near Sapporo. Japan's third largest carrier controls 36 coveted slots-pairs at preferred Haneda. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

Under the Skymark/ANA scheme, a total of 18 billion JPY would be injected into the bankrupt airline by Integral Corporation, UDS Airlines Investment, and ANA Holdings, which would in turn control 50.1%, 33.4%, and 16.5%, respectively. Six executives would sit on the board; Integral would select three, ANA two, and UDS one, while Integral would appoint the Chairman and UDS the President. The proposal would likely include reducing Skymark's network and fleet, implementing code-sharing, joint ticket sales, joint fuel purchases, and joint crew training with ANA, and gradually aligning its network to complement that of ANA's. This would virtually transform Skymark into another zombie feeder carrier, replicating how ANA controls AIRDO [HD/ADO] (d.b.a. Air Do), Skynet Asia Airways [6J/SNJ] (d.b.a. Solaseed Air), and Star Flyer [7G/SFJ]. Debt repayment rate to those who claim over 1 million JPY is set at 5%.

Boeing 767-381 JA8569 arrives at Haneda. Adding Skymark to ANA's portfolio of zombie carriers Air Do, Solaseed Air, and Star Flyer would have them control a dominant 60% of domestic slots at Haneda. With the remaining 40% controlled by JAL, it effectively brings back duopoly to Japan's most important airport. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

Meanwhile, Intrepid's deal includes the same 18 billion JPY, however, the plan has been amended to have Integral as the sole provider of the injection. This effectively paves the way for non-investment sponsorship by foreign airlines, which could be more acceptable to the regulators who are still uncomfortable about allowing foreign investment in Japanese carriers at slot-restricted Tokyo/Haneda [HND/RJTT]. Skymark's biggest creditor is seeking 900 million USD (104 billion JPY) for scrapping seven Airbus A330 contracts (Skymark terminates all Airbus A330 leases.), and though it favored ANA sponsorship when Japan's largest airline said it could induct the A330s, it decided to submit its own proposal when it learned ANA would not take them. Debt repayment rate for those claiming over 1 million JPY has been increased from 3% to 5% or higher, matching that of the Skymark/ANA plan.

Intrepid is reportedly holding talks with a number of candidate sponsors, who would be willing to take up the grounded A330s. Rumors point to Delta Air Lines [DL/DAL] and Hainan Airlines [HU/CHH], and at least the former's President Ed Bastian confirmed they had been approached though declining to give any details. The Skyteam member has long wanted a partner in Japan, and fought hard and failed to lure then-bankrupt Japan Airlines [JL/JAL] from American Airlines [AA/AAL] and Oneworld back in 2010. However, times have changed and so may have Delta's priorities; Japan is a shrinking market and U.S. airlines are focusing more on China, and Delta is reportedly negotiating a deeper cooperation, if not a joint-venture (JV), with Skyteam partner Korean Air [KE/KAL]. Delta also recently decided to forfeit its Seattle-Tacoma [SEA/KSEA] slot-pair at Haneda, leaving only Los Angeles [LAX/KLAX].

Boeing 777-232/ER N862DA at Narita. Delta's Tokyo presence it inherited from the Northwest merger continues to shrink; other than U.S. cities, only five intra-Asian/Pacific routes are expected to remain by 2016. Pursuing China through a potential deeper cooperation with Korean Air seems to be their priority. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

In addition, though Delta may take the Rolls-Royce-powered A330s (their current A330s are Pratt & Whitney and General Electric), they have no interest in A380s (Skymark's Airbus A380 order in jeopardy.). So how much support from Airbus, which also opposed the Skymark/ANA deal after ANA turned down the canceled A380s (Airbus and Intrepid to reject ANA/Skymark tie-up.), Intrepid's plan would be able to gain remains questionable. At the August 5th creditors' meeting, a proposal is required to win approval of a majority of debt holders, both in terms of the proportion of liabilities and the number of creditors. With Intrepid and Airbus's claims together accounting for over 60% of the liabilities, the European planemaker's decision is crucial. "We will study both plans. We hope one of them, if not two, will be viable for Skymark," said Fabrice Brégier, CEO of Airbus.

The supervisory board selected by the court said both proposals were realistic, commenting "It can't be said that Skymark wouldn't be able to carry out its rehabilitation without an airline sponsor," adding "Skymark had originally sought for a revitalization process without a sponsoring airline. Also, it can't be said that another sponsor (other than ANA) could not be found in the future." Skymark and ANA will hold an emergency meeting in early July to persuade creditors to endorse their proposal on August 5th, while Intrepid will continue to talk with airlines in search of a sponsor (and taker of the A330s). For most of the flying public, Intrepid's proposal would be welcome as it confirms Skymark's future as the third force independent from ANA or JAL, ensuring competition remains at Haneda. Stay tuned.

Source: Nikkei Shimbun, June 17th. (in Japanese)
Source: Yomiuri Shimbun, June 17th. (in Japanese)
Source: Reuters Japan, June 19th. (in Japanese)

Skymark and Intrepid submit rivaling revival plans.

On May 29th, Skymark Airlines [BC/SKY] filed a corporation rehabilitation plan with the Tokyo District Court that includes a sponsorship agreement with ANA Holdings, parent of All Nippon Airways [NH/ANA]. The new owners would together inject 18 billion JPY into the bankrupt carrier (Skymark to file for bankruptcy.), and a debt-equity swap would leave Integral Corporation holding 50.1%, UDS Airlines Investment 33.4%, and ANA Holdings 16.5%. UDS is a new investment firm jointly owned by Development Bank of Japan and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking. Six executives will sit on the board, and Integral will select three, ANA two, and UDS one; Integral will appoint the Chairman while UDS will choose the President.

Boeing 737-86N(WL) JA73NK rotates from Haneda. If the ANA partnership is approved, Skymark will likely use some of its 36 slots to take over or launch less profitable routes for ANA, as is the case with Air Do, Solaseed Air, and Star Flyer. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

The proposal includes allocating all 18 billion JPY to repay its debt, which Skymark targets to reduce to just 5% for creditors who claim over 1 million JPY. Creditors have so far filed claims totaling 308.9 billion JPY (Skymark's total debts skyrocket to 300 billion JPY.), including aircraft lessor Intrepid Aviation seeking 900 million USD (104 billion JPY) for scrapping seven Airbus A330 contracts (Skymark terminates all Airbus A330 leases.) and Airbus demanding 700 million USD (85 billion JPY) for the canceled A380 order (Skymark's Airbus A380 order in jeopardy.). The ANA/Skymark plan is expected to include code-sharing, joint ticket sales, joint fuel purchases, and joint crew training with ANA. A new corporate identity is also likely (Skymark hints at new brand: SKY bee?).

Meanwhile, biggest creditor Intrepid, which has decided to oppose ANA involvement in the rehabilitation proceedings (Airbus and Intrepid to reject ANA/Skymark tie-up.), also submitted a rivaling plan on May 29th. It says Integral would be the primary sponsor, but it would select an alternative airline partner other than ANA. "We are currently in the process of identifying candidates for a new airline sponsor," said the U.S.-based leasing firm, revealing Delta Air Lines [DL/DAL] as one of them (Skymark's fate: AirAsia, ANA, Delta, or...?). The debt repayment rate for those claiming over 1 million JPY is set at 3%, which is lower than the ANA/Skymark proposal. The European planemaker had also handed in a statement to the court on May 28th saying "If Skymark submits the plan (that involves ANA's sponsorship), there is a significant and realistic risk that it would not be able to gain the support of major creditors, including Airbus."

Airbus A320-211 N341NW at Salt Lake City. Intrepid Aviation is reportedly asking Delta Air Lines to sponsor Skymark. Airbus may also support the scheme, as the SkyTeam carrier is a major customer with 25 A350-900s, 25 A330-900neo aircraft, nine more A330-300s, and 45 A321s on order with potential for more. Delta has long wanted a partner in Japan, but has so far refrained from assisting Skymark. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

Intrepid had initially welcomed ANA's involvement as Japan's largest carrier reportedly talked positively about inducting Skymark's A330s, however, after they learned Japan's largest carrier would not take them up, it changed its mind. "It is true that we discussed the possible use of Skymark's A330 with Intrepid. And some media are reporting as if we are breaking a promise, but we didn't have any binding agreement. We ourselves are confused by what Intrepid is saying," said Toyoyuki Nagamine, Senior Executive Officer of ANA. Airbus is also unsatisfied with ANA not taking up the A380s. "We're not going to acquire a new aircraft just because we became Skymark's sponsor. We believe we enjoy a long friendly relationship with Airbus, and that would continue in the future. We will assist Skymark in negotiations with them," responded Mr. Nagamine.

Skymark criticized Intrepid's plan, saying feasibility of the rival proposal "is not clear at all" and offers a lower repayment rate for creditors' claims. The bankrupt carrier expressed confidence that if the court approves both plans, a majority of creditors would give consent for the ANA/Skymark rehabilitation plan at their meeting currently planned for July. A proposal is required to win approval of a majority of debt holders, both in terms of the proportion of liabilities and the number of creditors; thus rejection of the proposal by the two biggest creditors effectively blocks the ANA/Skymark tie-up. However, Skymark believes its actual debt they owe to Intrepid and Airbus are much lower, and hence do not need the support of the two (at least for now) biggest creditors.

Airbus A320-211 JA8947 taxies past a JAL Boeing 737. Adding Skymark to ANA's portfolio of puppet carriers Air Do, Solaseed Air, and Star Flyer would have them control a dominant 60% of domestic slots at Haneda. The JAL Group controls the remaining 40%, effectively bringing back duopoly at Japan's most important airport. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

ANA Holdings President Shinya Katanozaka said "We are the best sponsor." Although ANA and Intrepid have agreed to re-list Skymark within five years, the chief said "Our firm hold of Skymark shares will translate into their revitalization," adding "If there is a merit to both of us, we want to continue the partnership beyond their rehabilitation period." With so much priority on keeping genuine competition out of Tokyo/Haneda [HND/RJTT], ANA likely has no intention of letting go of its influence on the former rival start-up, which ultimately forced Japan's largest carrier to launch full-fledged LCCs Peach Aviation [MM/APJ] and the first AirAsia Japan (Mk I) [JW/WAJ] (CoachFlyer JW8541: NRT - FUK on AirAsia Japan's Airbus A320.), which now operates as Vanilla Air [JW/VNL].

Skymark plans to commence code-sharing with ANA as soon as it receives approval from regulator Japan Civil Aviation Bureau (JCAB), though routes have not been disclosed. Nobuo Sayama, President of Integral said, "We will suspend Sendai (Skymark to pull out of Sendai in October.) and Yonago (Skymark decides to close Yonago, keep Ibaraki.), but will fly elsewhere, where we can find more customers," adding "We will discuss new destinations with ANA as early as autumn." As with ANA's other minority-owned but de facto controlled carriers AIRDO [HD/ADO] (d.b.a. Air Do), Skynet Asia Airways [6J/SNJ] (d.b.a. Solaseed Air), and Star Flyer [7G/SFJ], some of Skymark's Haneda slots are likely to be used to take over ANA's less profitable routes or launch new links on behalf of ANA, gradually transforming Skymark into a feeder carrier for Japan's biggest carrier.

ANA's Mr. Nagamine says Skymark would still be independent, as "Pricing would be decided by Skymark." Well, not many would agree with that.

Source: Aviation Wire, May 29th. (in Japanese)
Source: Aviation Wire, May 29th. (in Japanese)
Source: Reuters Japan, June 1st. (in Japanese)
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, June 2nd. (in Japanese)
Source: Yomiuri Shimbun, June 3rd. (in Japanese)
Source: Business Journal, June 3rd. (in Japanese)
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, June 5th. (in Japanese) 

*Edited/updated on June 5th, 2015.

Airbus and Intrepid to reject ANA/Skymark tie-up.

Skymark Airlines' [BC/SKY] biggest creditors Intrepid Aviation and Airbus have informed the bankrupt carrier (Skymark to file for bankruptcy.) that they would block a corporation rehabilitation plan involving All Nippon Airways [NH/ANA]. Creditors have filed claims totaling 320 billion JPY (Skymark's total debts skyrocket to 300 billion JPY.), with the U.S.-based leasing firm seeking 900 million USD (104 billion JPY) for scrapping seven A330 contracts (Skymark terminates all Airbus A330 leases.) and the European planemaker demanding 700 million USD (85 billion JPY) for the canceled Airbus A380 order (Skymark's Airbus A380 order in jeopardy.).

Boeing 737-86N(WL) JA73NX lands at Haneda near sunset. Its fleet of 27 baby Boeings is also expected to be reduced. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

Both Airbus and Intrepid had earlier welcomed the tie-up after ANA reportedly told them it would consider taking up the A380s and A330s in concern, but the latest scheme does not include any use of the displaced airframes by ANA nor Skymark. The plan, which needs to be submitted to the Tokyo District Court by May 29th, is required to win approval of a majority of debt holders, both in terms of the proportion of liabilities and the number of creditors; thus rejection of the proposal by the two biggest creditors effectively blocks the ANA/Skymark deal.

On April 22nd, Skymark, Integral Corporation, and ANA Holdings had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) where the investment fund would take a 50.1% control while Japan's largest carrier would virtually control 49.9% together with its partner banks (Skymark gives in to ANA; Japan reverts to duopoly.). The latest plan calls for ANA to hold 16.5% while Development Bank of Japan and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking would together hold 33.4%; Skymark's 36 lucrative slots-pairs at Haneda would need to be relinquished if ANA's shareholding exceeds 20%, as required by the regulator. The initial corporation rehabilitation plan is expected to include code-sharing, joint ticket sales, joint fuel purchases, and joint crew training with ANA. A new corporate identity is also likely (Skymark hints at new brand: SKY bee?).

Skymark is boldly setting its debt repayment ratio target at around 5%, asking its creditors to write off the remainder. The embattled airline does not have enough time to reach a deal with creditors by May 29th, and negotiations are likely to continue until July. Meanwhile, either Nobuo Sayama or Reijiro Yamamoto, the two Presidents of Integral Corporation, is expected to be appointed Skymark's Chairman, representing the airline. ANA was looking for a veteran to install in Skymark as President, but the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MLIT) is reportedly opposing it to keep Skymark as independent as possible, and that position is now likely to come from Development Bank of Japan.

ANA and Integral's agreement is still fragile with looming distrust and conflicting interests; ANA wants to place Skymark under its influence once and for all and keep genuine domestic competition out of bread-and-butter Haneda for as long as possible, while Integral wants to rebuild Skymark as a fully independent carrier. And now, either ANA (or Skymark) is forced to take up the A380s and A330s or pay the hefty compensation, and in the worst case scenario at least for ANA, Skymark would need to find another partner (ANA and AirAsia bid to save Skymark.). But for Skymark too, it is questionable if they have enough financial strength and support to withstand the time and work needed to propose another plan with a new partner from scratch.

Source: Nikkei Shimbun, May 19th. (in Japanese)
Source: Mainichi Shimbun, May 26th. (in Japanese)
Source: Yomiuri Shimbun, May 26th. (in Japanese)
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, May 26th. (in Japanese)
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, May 27th. (in Japanese) 
Source: Yomiuri Shimbun, May 27th. (in Japanese)

*Edited/updated on May 27th, 2015.

Skymark's total debts skyrocket to 300 billion JPY.

Skymark Airlines' [BC/SKY] total liabilities grew to nearly 300 billion JPY, after all creditors filed claims by the March 18th deadline specified by the Tokyo District Court, where Japan's third largest carrier sought for bankruptcy protection (Skymark to file for bankruptcy.) in January. Airbus is demanding 700 million USD (84 billion JPY) in compensation for the canceled Airbus A380 order (Skymark hopes to settle Airbus A380 penalty in October.), while aircraft lessor Intrepid Aviation is seeking 900 million USD (108 billion JPY) for scrapping seven A330 lease contracts (Skymark terminates all Airbus A330 leases.).

Two of Skymark's Airbus A330-300Es are seen grounded at Tokyo International Airport at Haneda. All five could be heading out to the desert for long-term storage, now that the leases have been terminated. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

Other major creditors include ANA Trading, Boeing, Central Japan International Airport (operator of Nagoya/Chubu Centrair [NGO/RJGG]), Japan Airlines [JL/JAL], Japan Airport Terminal (operator of Terminals 1 & 2 at Tokyo/Haneda [HND/RJTT]), and Shinichi Nishikubo (Skymark's former CEO). The embattled carrier had earlier estimated its liabilities at 71 billion JPY, excluding claims from Airbus and leasing firms. A 300 billion JPY debt would push Skymark into insolvency, as their total assets stood at 74 billion JPY as of December 2014. The airline is expected to perform a 100% capital reduction. 

By April 15th, Skymark will issue a statement of approval or disapproval for the submitted claims, and the cash-strapped airline and creditors have between April 22nd and May 8th to negotiate final figures. A corporation rehabilitation plan must be handed in to the Tokyo District Court by May 29th, and it would need majority go-ahead at a creditor's meeting that would be held in late June for the plan to be implemented by the end of July. Skymark is likely to decide whether to accept an airline sponsorship, either from AirAsia [AK/AXM] or All Nippon Airways' [NH/ANA] parent ANA Holdings (ANA and AirAsia bid to save Skymark.), or go without it and only endorse financial assistance from Integral Corporation plus other investment firms.

Sponsorship proposals from neither AirAsia nor ANA Holdings have been made public. However, the Malaysia-based pan-Asian LCC group is reportedly calling for a re-branding of Skymark under AirAsia, launching a new joint-venture (JV) long-haul subsidiary (a hint at AirAsia X Japan?), and a potential future merger with AirAsia Japan (Mk II), which is currently preparing to launch operations from Chubu Centrair by the end of this year (New AirAsia Japan's first Airbus A320 due in July.). It would also mediate talks with Airbus to reduce Skymark's debt. Meanwhile, ANA Holdings' plan reportedly calls for reducing Skymark's fleet to around 20 aircraft, implementing extensive code-sharing, joint ticket sales, joint fuel purchases, joint crew training, and aligning its network to complement that of ANA's, virtually transforming Skymark into a feeder carrier for Japan's largest carrier.

Source: Nikkei Shimbun, March 20th. (in Japanese)

Skymark terminates all Airbus A330 leases.

Skymark Airlines [BC/SKY] has apparently decided to permanently dispose of their Airbus A330s, the entire fleet of which was grounded (Skymark Airbus A330 operates last revenue flight.) effective February 1st, only three days after filing for bankruptcy protection (Skymark to file for bankruptcy.). According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, lease contracts for all 10 A330s ordered were terminated by March 13th. A total of seven were to be leased from Intrepid Aviation, of which four had been delivered, and three from CIT Aerospace, of which one had been delivered.

Airbus A330-343E JA330A taxies at Haneda in November 2014. All five A330s that have been delivered to Japan remain parked at Tokyo's downtown airport. Its all-premium layout without any in-flight entertainment has made it difficult to find new operators, but costs for reconfiguring would probably be included in the compensation the two lessors would be seeking. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

Japan's embattled third largest carrier only took delivery of their first pair of A330s a year ago on February 28th, 2014 (Skymark Airlines' first two Airbus A330s delivered.). Powered by two Rolls-Royce Trent 772B-60 engines, the European wide-bodied twin-jets boasted a generous seven-abreast (2-3-2) 271-seat all-premium layout. After delaying service entry four times or by almost three months (Skymark delays Airbus A330 launch again; now June 14th.) due to certification issues, it finally inaugurated service on June 14th (Skymark Airlines inaugurates Airbus A330 service.).

However, as Skymark dumped capacity on trunk routes from Tokyo/Haneda [HND/RJTT], they often had to keep the price of the A330s' premium seats to below that of even rivals' economy fares to fill the new airplanes; the more they flew the A330, the more they hemorrhaged. So effective February 1st, the fleet was standardized on the 177-seat all-economy Boeing 737-800s once again. Thanks to the A330 grounding as well as several frequency cuts (Skymark to cut 15% of flights, ground all Airbus A330s.), Skymark's system-wide load factor for February was 68.6%, up from 55.1% in January.

The bankrupt airline is currently running on financial aid provided by investment fund Integral Corporation, and they together are in the process of choosing an airline sponsor as well as two or three non-airline partners. AirAsia [AK/AXM] and ANA Holdings, parent of All Nippon Airways [NH/ANA], are the only two airline firms that have submitted comprehensive proposals (ANA and AirAsia bid to save Skymark.). Concerning the A330, the Malaysia-based LCC group had suggested reconfiguring the A330 in a high-density layout and placing them on a different operating certificate for international routes, while ANA's plan had called for disposal.

Skymark estimated its total liabilities at 71 billion JPY, not including the 700 million USD in penalties Airbus is seeking for the cancellation of the A380 order (Skymark hopes to settle Airbus A380 penalty in October.). The premature termination of the A330 lease contract will likely have lessors Intrepid Aviation and CIT Aerospace seek compensation as well. All creditors have until March 18th to submit the figure Skymark owes to each of them, and the cash-strapped airline will probably make its final selection of sponsors only after that.

Source: Yomiuri Shimbun, March 10th. (in Japanese)
Source: Yomiuri Shimbun, March 15th. (in Japanese)

ANA and AirAsia bid to save Skymark.

Follow-up from Skymark likely to accept ANA sponsorship.

On February 23rd, ANA Holdings and AirAsia [AK/AXM] filed sponsorship proposals to assist bankrupt Skymark Airlines [BC/SKY] (Skymark to file for bankruptcy.). This day was the deadline set by Skymark's financial adviser GCA Savvian for airline firms willing to help Japan's troubled third largest carrier, while February 19th was the time limit for non-airline companies. Financial services groups Daiwa Securities, Orix, and Shinsei Bank, as well as travel agency H.I.S. and major trading firm Sojitz are some of nearly 20 non-airline names that submitted proposals.

Airbus A320-214 JA02AJ of AirAsia Japan (Mk I) taxies past ANA Wings' Boeing 737-54K JA306K at Fukuoka in August 2012. AirAsia and ANA, which had a short-lived marriage with the joint-venture, are now fighting for Skymark. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

The parent of Japan's largest carrier All Nippon Airways [NH/ANA] handed in a comprehensive restructuring plan (Running out of time: Will Skymark join ANA?) that includes an eventual minority interest under 20%, the maximum possible ownership change allowed if Skymark were to retain the lucrative 36 domestic slot-pairs at Tokyo/Haneda [HND/RJTT], which are at the center of the picture. The plan includes extensive code-sharing, joint ticket sales, joint fuel purchases, joint crew training, and aligning Skymark's network with that of ANA's.

Meanwhile, the proposal submitted by the Malaysia-based pan-Asian LCC group reportedly does not include a prospective shareholding (Is AirAsia considering a Skymark takeover?). AirAsia's plans call for setting up a joint-venture with Skymark to operate their now grounded Airbus A330s (Skymark Airbus A330 operates last revenue flight.) on medium-to-long-range international routes, after reconfiguring them in a high-density layout. It would also mediate negotiations with the European planemaker for the A380 cancellation penalty (Skymark hopes to settle Airbus A380 penalty in October.), taking advantage of AirAsia's status as the biggest A330 and A320 customer. 

Japan Airlines [JL/JAL] and Delta Air Lines [DL/DAL] did not apply. "We looked at the papers, and decided investing in Skymark is not what we should be doing now," said JAL President Yoshiharu Ueki on February 18th, while Delta's Senior Vice President of New York region Gail Grimmett also said "We have no plans to invest in Skymark." For JAL, itself saved from bankruptcy by a government bailout in 2010, the controversial 8.10 Paper prohibits them from making any new investments until FY2017. Chinese LCC Spring Airlines [9C/CQH] was approached by the cash-strapped airline, but apparently, they opted to keep their hands off.
 

Airbus A330-343E JA330B rolling for takeoff from Haneda on a training flight in April 2014. The aircraft is now grounded, but AirAsia's plans call for a joint-venture (AirAsia X Japan?) to fly them on international routes. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

Selecting AirAsia would help Skymark remain an independent third force with no affiliation with ANA nor JAL, which is crucial to keeping competition at Haneda and some domestic routes. Charismatic former CEO Shinichi Nishikubo had vehemently rejected ANA assistance, saying "Skymark's meaning of existence lies in that we are independent." A reincarnation of AirAsia Japan (Mk II) (AirAsia Japan is officially reborn; first flight June 2015.) is currently being set up at Nagoya/Chubu Centrair [NGO/RJGG] (AirAsia Japan selects Nagoya Chubu Centrair.), however, the LCC group has repeatedly expressed desire to access Haneda's domestic slots. Meanwhile, regulatory hurdles seem to have delayed the new unit's launch to fourth quarter 2015 at earliest (New AirAsia Japan's first Airbus A320 due in July.).

On the other hand, an ANA partnership would virtually relegate Skymark to merely a feeder carrier for the giant. All three other start-ups that were born after Japan's deregulation, namely AIRDO [HD/ADO] (d.b.a. Air Do), Skynet Asia Airways [6J/SNJ] (d.b.a. Solaseed Air), and Star Flyer [7G/SFJ], failed to make their business cases work and accepted ANA's minority stake in exchange for giving ANA managerial control and hence de facto control of their respective precious Haneda slots. ANA veterans replaced management (New Star Flyer President is from ANA.), code-sharing was implemented on their entire networks, and routes and schedules are now closely coordinated with ANA.

Skymark's current Representative Chairman Takashi Ide had previously said "We seriously thought we could hand over management to Tony (Fernandes)," preferring AirAsia or any overseas partner over ANA or JAL. But winds seem to have changed and Mr. Ide revealed last week that they are seeking for sponsorship from a Japanese major airline (Skymark likely to accept ANA sponsorship.), adding "Our brand was stuck in the middle (of full-service carriers and LCCs). There are lots of things we can learn from the major carriers, for example in service quality."

Skymark and partner investment fund Integral (Integral: Keeping Skymark the third force not priority.) will examine all proposals and likely select a single airline and a few non-airline firms as early as March. It needs to submit a corporation rehabilitation plan with the Tokyo District Court, where it filed for bankruptcy protection, by May 29th.

Source: Aviation Wire, February 18th. (in Japanese)
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, February 19th. (in Japanese)
Source: NHK, February 23rd. (in Japanese)
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, February 23rd. (in Japanese)