New AirAsia Japan reveals China, SE Asia, USA ambitions.

On February 15th, AirAsia Japan's (Mk II) [DJ] new Chairman Takashi Ide revealed that the delayed LCC is now preparing to start flying in Summer 2016, hopefully in July or August. Speaking at a public symposium calling for a second runway at its Nagoya/Chubu Centrair [NGO/RJGG] hub (AirAsia Japan confirms Spring 2016 launch from Nagoya.), the former Skymark Airlines [BC/SKY] executive who only joined in December (AirAsia Japan CEO to quit, ex-Skymark executives coming.) also disclosed plans for China, hubs at Taipei/Taoyuan [TPE/RCTP] and Tokyo/Narita [NRT/RJAA], plus Airbus A330s for trans-Pacific and Hawaii routes. It will also continue to push for Chubu Centrair's proposed new LCC terminal, which could open as early as FY2018 and handle up to 5 million passengers annually.

Airbus A320-216(SL) JA01DJ, which has not flown since delivery (New AirAsia Japan receives first Airbus A320.), is now being reactivated for a test flight on February 16th. AirAsia Japan (Mk II) plans to commence crew training on its own aircraft on March 15th as their first group of trainees return from Malaysia. Their second aircraft will be deferred to April, while the Mika Ninagawa-designed special livery will be adorned by their third. (Photo: Aviation Wire)

The reincarnation of AirAsia's [AK/AXM] Japanese unit was originally planned to take off in June 2015 (AirAsia Japan is officially reborn; first flight June 2015.), but was postponed to April 2016 after finally receiving an Air Operator's Certificate (AOC) in October (New AirAsia Japan receives AOC; takeoff in April 2016.), only to be delayed again after the surprising management change (New AirAsia Japan delays service entry to July 2016.). Its shareholders have agreed to together inject 3 billion JPY this month. "Former management was essentially trying to build a Japanese branch of AirAsia. But we need to be a Japanese airline in the first place," said Mr. Ide, explaining "An AOC (in Japan) only means the business structure is in place. We cannot fly yet because we have not met all the JCAB criteria to become airworthy." Mr. Ide also added "AirAsia is fun and bright, but that is outside of Japan. People are very conservative here, and it is difficult to carve out a space against ANA and JAL. I learned a lot about that (through Skymark)."

Mr. Ide reiterated that AirAsia Japan's main target would be Japan's inbound market (outbound is shrinking due to aging and a declining population). As already reported, it will start with a fleet of two 180-seat Airbus A320 flying from Chubu Centrair to Sapporo/New Chitose [CTS/RJCC], Sendai [SDJ/RJSS], and Taipei, with each city receiving double-daily frequencies. It plans to carry 150,000 passengers by 2016 year-end. In 2017, its fleet will be increased to six aircraft mostly to fuel China expansion, and Mr. Ide named Beijing/Capital [PEK/ZBAA] or Tianjin [TSN/ZBTJ], Guam [GUM/PGUM], Hong Kong [HKG/VHHH] or Macau [MFM/VMMC], Seoul/Incheon [ICN/RKSI], and Shanghai/Pudong [PVG/ZSPD] or Wuxi [WUX/ZSWX]. Mr. Ide said it will not hesitate to fly to less-congested airports that have attractive incentives for newcomers. First profit is forecasted for FY2017.

For 2018, AirAsia Japan will add three A320s for a total of nine, plus two A330s. The new Airbus wide-body aircraft will be used to open up Chubu Centrair – Singapore/Changi [SIN/WSSS], while the additional A320s will be based at a new hub at Narita and fly to Beijing or Tianjin, Hong Kong or Macau, New Chitose, Taipei, and Shanghai or Wuxi, all destinations which would already be served from Chubu Centrair by then. FY2018 is projected to see total revenue increasing to 25 billion JPY with a profit margin of 7%. During 2019, the fleet will be increased to a dozen A320s and four A330s; the A320s will be based at their third hub at Taipei and start Vietnam and Singapore using fifth freedom rights, while additional A330s will be used to launch Honolulu [HNL/PHNL] from both Chubu Centrair and Narita. FY2019 is expected to see revenue amounting to 35 billion JPY with a profit margin of 10%.

By the end of 2020, the LCC will boast 14 A320s and six A330s. The additional A330s will be used to open up its first trans-Pacific routes to Seattle-Tacoma [SEA/KSEA], though Mr. Ide noted it could be changed to San Francisco [SFO/KSFO] depending on which U.S. partner it interlines with. Meanwhile, the A320 additions will help them connect more dots, including Taipei and Narita with Seoul. By the end of FY2020, AirAsia Japan aims to fly 30 round-trips from Chubu Centair and 10 round-trips from Narita with an average load factor of 75%, producing total revenues of 50 billion JPY and a profit margin of 15%. The LCC also plans to conduct its Initial Public Offering (IPO) during FY2020.

So the details of AirAsia's second shot at Japan have now been unveiled. The importance of China had been repeated, however, as slots at key destinations dry up, it may need to fly to secondary airports. AirAsia has brand recognition in China, but how much impact a split operation among sisters would have is unsure, though it already serves multiple airports for Tokyo with AirAsia X [D7/XAX] at Tokyo/Haneda [HND/RJTT] and Thai AirAsia X [XJ/TAX] at Narita. For Japan – Southeast Asia, Vietnam and Singapore are natural priorities, as the group doesn't have local affiliates there. Meanwhile, Malaysia and Thailand are better served by its lower-cost sisters in these respective countries. It is also noteworthy that AirAsia Japan will become the first group carrier to operate A330s alongside A320s (excluding Indonesia AirAsia X [XT/IDX], for paperwork purposes); the Airbus wide-bodies will mainly serve trans-Pacific and Hawaii markets, with feed not only from Japan (which is shrinking), but from China and Southeast Asia (which is growing).

Source: Traicy, 2016 February 15th. (in Japanese)
Source: Aviation Wire, 2016 February 15th. (in Japanese)
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, 2016 February 15th. (in Japanese)

*Edited/updated on 2016 February 16th.

JAL shifts more Tokyo – China flights from Narita to Haneda.

On August 31st, Japan Airlines [JL/JAL] announced plans to expand their China network from Tokyo/Haneda [HND/RJTT] with new daily service to Guangzhou [CAN/ZGGG] and Shanghai/Pudong [PVG/ZSPD] along with a second daily round-trip to Beijing/Capital [PEK/ZBAA] effective October 25th, the beginning of the Winter 2015/2016 timetable. Meanwhile, Tokyo/Narita [NRT/RJAA] will see JAL axe Guangzhou and reduce Beijing from twice to once daily.

Nine 767s, including pictured Boeing 767-346/ER(WL) JA618J at Honolulu, are equipped with winglets and Sky Suite interior. JAL, which flies 32 -300ERs and 12 -300s, is celebrating their 30th year of 767 operations. 60 were ordered and the first, a -200, was delivered back on July 23rd, 1985. Although 787s are gradually taking over the 767s' roles, newer -300ERs are being converted to domestic, replacing older -300s and 777s. The versatile aircraft will surely soldier on for another decade or two. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

The new Haneda – Shanghai/Pudong link will be served by Boeing 767-300ERs configured with JAL's award-winning Sky Suite product (JAL adding more Sky Suite destinations.) and boasting a generous 199-seat layout (24 business and 175 economy class). The new Guangzhou and additional Beijing flights will see non-Sky Suite 227-seat (30 business and 197 economy class) 767-300ERs deployed.

Flight Schedule:
Haneda – Tokyo/Haneda – Beijing/Capital increase from 1 to 2 daily.
JL021 HND 0910 – 1220 PEK 788 Daily
JL025 HND 1720 – 2030 PEK 763 Daily *NEW from Oct/25.
JL020 PEK 0825 – 1245 HND 763 Daily *NEW from Oct/26.
JL022 PEK 1640 – 2100 HND 788 Daily

Tokyo/Haneda – Guangzhou NEW daily with 767-300ER.
JL087 HND 0850 – 1305 CAN 763 Daily *From Oct/25.
JL088 CAN 1450 – 1945 HND 763 Daily *From Oct/25.

Tokyo/Haneda – Shanghai/Hongqiao daily with 777-200ER. (existing service)
JL081 HND 0915 – 1145 SHA 772 Daily
JL082 SHA 1305 – 1645 HND 772 Daily

Tokyo/Haneda – Shanghai/Pudong NEW daily with 767-300ER.
JL085 HND 1440 – 1710 PVG 76W Daily *From Oct/25.
JL086 PVG 1835 – 2220 HND 76W Daily *From Oct/25.

In May, authorities of China and Japan agreed to allocate two round-trips to each side for Haneda – Guangzhou services. JAL's archrival All Nippon Airways [NH/ANA] was the first to take advantage, having already announced a similar expansion at Haneda and shift away from Narita (ANA strengthens Haneda – China with Guangzhou.). China Southern Airlines [CZ/CSN], based in China's third most populated city, is reportedly also preparing to launch the route though no official announcement has yet been made.

Source: Japan Airlines, 2015 August 31st. (in Japanese) 
Source: Aviation Wire, 2015 September 1st. (in Japanese)

ANA strengthens Haneda – China with Guangzhou.

On August 4th, All Nippon Airways [NH/ANA] revealed plans to expand its China network from Tokyo/Haneda [HND/RJTT] with new daily services to Guangzhou [CAN/ZGGG] and Shanghai/Pudong [PVG/ZSPD] along with a second daily flight to Beijing/Capital [PEK/ZBAA] effective October 25th. 214-seat (35 business and 179 economy class) Boeing 767-300ERs will be deployed on the new flights.

Boeing 767-381 JA8368 at Haneda. Older 767-300ERs are gradually being converted into a domestic layout to replace the oldest 767-300s, with four examples having received the reconfiguration so far. ANA's 767 fleet is comprised of 25 -300ERs, eight -300ER(BCF)s, and 16 -300s. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

In May, authorities of China and Japan had agreed to allocate two round-trips to each side for Haneda – Guangzhou services. China Southern Airlines [CZ/CSN], based in China's third most populated city, is also preparing to launch the route though no official announcement has yet been made.

Flight Schedule:
Tokyo/Haneda – Beijing/Capital increase from 1 to 2 daily.
NH961 HND 0925 – 1235 PEK 772 Daily
NH963 HND 1725 – 2035 PEK 76W/763 Daily *NEW from Oct/25.
NH964 PEK 0830 – 1245 HND 76W/763 Daily *NEW from Oct/26.
NH962 PEK 1545 – 2000  HND 772 Daily

Tokyo/Haneda – Guangzhou NEW daily with 767-300ER.
NH923 HND 0925 – 1350 CAN 76W/763 Daily *From Oct/25.
NH924 CAN 1550 – 2000 HND 76W/763 Daily *From Oct/25.

Tokyo/Haneda – Shanghai/Pudong NEW daily with 767-300ER.
NH971 HND 1830 – 2110 PVG 76W/763 Daily *From Oct/25.
NH972 PVG 0820 – 1205 HND 76W/763 Daily *From Oct/26.

Meanwhile, Japan's largest carrier will reduce frequency on the Tokyo/Narita [NRT/RJAA] – Beijing route from double to single daily from the same date, though Narita – Guangzhou will continue to be flown daily and Narita – Shanghai/Pudong three times daily. From the preferred downtown Tokyo airport at Haneda, ANA currently operates to Beijing and Shanghai/Hongqiao [SHA/ZSSS] in mainland China as well as Hong Kong [HKG/VHHH].

Source: All Nippon Airways, August 4th. (in Japanese)

ANA maintains Nagoya – Shanghai in Winter 2014/2015.

On September 2nd, All Nippon Airways (NH/ANA) announced that they would maintain their Nagoya/Chubu Centrair (NGO/RJGG) – Shanghai/Pudong (PVG/ZSPD) service after October 26th, the beginning of the Winter 2014/2015 schedule. The once-daily round-trip will continue to see the 120-seat (8 business and 112 economy) Boeing 737-700 being deployed.

Boeing 737-881(WL) JA67AN taxies at Haneda. Although ANA flies the 737-700 on both domestic and international flights, the larger 737-800s are only used for domestic operations. (Photo: Ryosuke Yano)

Until now operated as a summer seasonal service, times will be changed from Winter 2014/2015 with the morning Chubu Centrair departure moving to night time, and Shanghai afternoon departure moving to morning hours. The new outbound leg allows for connections from domestic cities to the Shanghai route, while the return leg provides connection opportunities to their final domestic destinations. Improving China-Japan relations reflected by improving load factors probably played a role in their decision.

Flight Schedule (Oct/26/2014 - Mar/28/2015):
Nagoya/Chubu Centrair – Shanghai/Pudong 1 daily with 737-700.
NH939 NGO 2125 – 2320 PVG 73W Daily
NH940 PVG 0650 – 1000 NGO 73W Daily *From Oct/27.

ANA is by far the biggest operator at Chubu Centrair serving 16 domestic destinations plus Hong Kong (HKG/VHHH) and Shanghai. Tokyo/Haneda (HND/RJTT) will be added from October 26th (ANA releases Winter 2014/2015 schedule.) as their 17th domestic city.

However, Chubu Centrair – Pudong sees heavy competition with China Eastern Airlines (MU/CES) flying in three daily Airbus A320s, China Southern Airlines (CZ/CSN) a daily A320, Air China (CA/CCA) bringing in the A319 daily, and Japan Airlines (JL/JAL) operating daily with Boeing 767s. Chinese LCCs Juneyao Airlines (HO/DKH) and Spring Airlines (9C/CQH) also intend to launch services from Shanghai by 2015 and 2016, respectively, while AirAsia Japan (Mk II) (AirAsia Japan selects Nagoya Chubu Centrair.) is starting by July 2016 and regional Asian routes are on their radar after initial domestic routes have been established.

Reference: All Nippon Airways, September 2nd. (in Japanese)